Bhubaneswar, Oct 7 [UDN}:A fresh weather system is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal in mid-October, according to the latest extended-range outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). An upper-air cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the North Andaman Sea around October 12, which may subsequently lead to the formation of a low-pressure area around October 13.
The system may move towards the southern and adjoining central Bay of Bengal around October 15. However, the IMD has currently indicated only a low probability (1–33%) of intensification into a depression at that stage.
At present, there is no clear indication of the system becoming a cyclone or making landfall along the Odisha coast. The eventual movement, intensity and possible impact will become clearer as the system develops and the forecast window approaches.
Key dates:
October 12: Possible upper-air cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea
October 13: Low-pressure area may form over the Andaman Sea
Around October 15: System may move towards the southern/central Bay of Bengal; possibility of depression formation is currently low
Subsequent days: Track and intensity expected to become clearer with fresh IMD updates
The IMD’s current October 2 outlook should therefore be treated as an early-stage forecast, rather than confirmation of a cyclone threat to Odisha.
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